I think terrorist-control is going to be a lot like weed-control. Especially when the US is itself often funding terrorists. (Though when they're your terrorists, they're not called terrorists.)

Still, you're right. Before they move, they should be sure.

Of course, if they are really serious about putting a dint in terrorism, they are going to have to hit the Taliban itself. I believe Bush's ultimatums to the Taliban were not issued with any intention of securing the bloodless turnover of bin Laden to US authorities. That would take a lot of the momentum out of this on-the-spot war effort. Cheney and Rumsfeld want this war to happen.

Since the Taliban are engaged in a long-standing civil war and hold something like 80% of the country (one article I read said 90%, while another said 70%), I think it's clear Cheney and Rumsfeld will settle for nothing less than a war in Afghanistan. Nothing less than a war will root the Taliban out of Afghanistan.

After Afghanistan, where next? This could actually go on a lot longer than 10 years. Sudan is also in the midst of a bloody civil war, in some respects literally fueled by the West (oil - what else?). Bin Laden has some sort of network there. Yemen is another haven for terrorist groups. Then, of course, there's Libya. There also remains the business in Iraq left unfinished by Bush, Jr.'s father, and Saddam is likely to have lent support to bin Laden's operation. What about the nastiness in the Phillipines? China is probably behind it, so will China be taken on? Doubtful. The war on terrorism will have to stop somewhere.

Personally, I like best the solution you suggested. Go to the heart of the problem: Israel. Something tells me, however, that won't be happening.

By attacking nation state sponsors of terrorism in the Middle East, the US may find itself with a large military presence in the midst of the world's principal oil-producing region. And have unprecedented influence over the decisions made in that region, including decisions relating to oil.

Ultimately, the war on terrorism will not be finished. Either that or the US will truly establish the hegemony Russia, China and so many other nations have feared.

However you slice it, it seems the people running America want a long-term ongoing conflict. Not the quick operation you propose. And they will get what they want.