"It is tough to make predictions, especially about the future."

Niels Bohr said pretty much the same thing, "Prediction is extremely difficult. Especially about the future."

The only real reason I support some form of NMD is because it could negate the ability of a marginal nuclear power to blackmail us. It has always been a distinct issue from terrorism. Some people have pointed out that a bulletproof vest doesn't protect against a head shot, but that doesn't stop cops from wearing them. When I go to bed at night, I lock both my doors and my windows. NMD won't protect against terrorism, but then most forms of terrorism protection won't protect against a missile either.

Keep in mind that Pakistan has nuclear weapons and missiles capable of carrying them hundreds of miles. Their government is threatened by potential civil war. If those missiles were put on a ship, they could hit American cities. Sometimes, we need to keep in mind the worst-case scenarios when making these decisions. It's true that NMD may take a back seat for a time but we shouldn't discount it out of hand.