<
--------------
STRATFOR.com
--------------
THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
If it’s in the news, it’s too late...
Humanitarian Crisis Will Jeopardize U.S. Military Goals
October 22, 2001
Summary
International relief agencies have launched a volley of complaints against the United States and Pakistan for impeding humanitarian efforts along Afghanistan's borders. The United Nations will likely voice similar criticisms as winter sets in and member states seek a culprit for ensuing starvation in Afghanistan. Within months, U.N. Security Council members will lose consensus for the U.S.-led military campaign.
Analysis
Humanitarian relief agencies have about three weeks to deliver aid before harsh winter conditions take hold in Afghanistan.
Anticipating this, agencies are asking the United States to halt its bombing campaign against the Taliban regime and Pakistan to free up its borders to refugees. Disagreement over who is to blame for the starvation of thousands of Afghans will likely turn U.N. Security Council members against one another in coming months, constraining U.S. military objectives in Afghanistan and elsewhere.
By spring, the United Nations will reverse its stance on U.S. bombing operations, prioritizing humanitarian goals such as protecting civilians over U.S. military objectives in Afghanistan. This will serve as a nucleus for mainstream opposition that could fracture the U.S.-led coalition in the Middle East.
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Humanitarian Crisis Will Jeopardize U.S. Military Goals . . .