Based on all of the various expert opinions it seems that capturing Mazar-e-Sharif before winter sets in is critical. This would provide, a road to convoy in humanitarian aid, a good staging area for future military missions that is not dependent on shaky support from Pakistan and it would not establish the Northern Alliance as the defacto government.

If we can flood the area with aid for the refugees during the winter while we pound enemy positions we may erode Taliban support and facilitate mass defections by Spring.

The problem seems to be that the N.A. appears to be far more interested in Kabul.