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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
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Ground War Strategies Part 4: What's Next for the Taliban?
November 14, 2001
Summary
The Taliban have withdrawn from major Afghan cities and dispersed into the countryside. However, they are far from defeated; they have simply abandoned positional, frontal warfare for the guerrilla tactics more suited to their numbers and resources. In doing so, they have also reset the clock on the conflict in Afghanistan. The Taliban war plan will play out over the coming years rather than days.
Analysis
Northern Alliance officials reported Nov. 14 that Kandahar, headquarters of the Taliban regime, had fallen to opposition forces. If the report proves accurate, it caps off a lightning operation that in six days drove the Taliban from power, from Afghanistan's cities and from the battlefield.
On the surface, it appears the Taliban were dealt a crushing defeat. Thousands of Taliban fighters switched sides or were captured during the Northern Alliance's advance, and the remainder melted into the hills having put up almost no fight. However, the Taliban withdrawal was far from a rout. Rather, it reflects abandonment of a strategy that could have led to their destruction, in preparation for a more traditional and effective strategy for combat in Afghanistan -- guerrilla warfare.
The Taliban's strategic change will substantially alter the tempo and tactics of the war in Afghanistan, as well as the shape of the theater of operations. As multinational peacekeeping forces prepare to enter the country, they will face a low-grade guerrilla war that is likely to last for years and extend into neighboring countries.
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Ground War Strategies Part 4: What's Next for the Taliban . . . ?