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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
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Victory and Beyond for Washington
January 7, 2002
Summary
The U.S. strategy of denying sanctuary to al Qaeda has been and will continue to be successful. However, the price for such a victory will be high. In order to liquidate the threat of terrorism, Washington will have to strengthen global players who might turn against the United States in the future.
Analysis
Events in Afghanistan have shown that the United States can defeat al Qaeda in the long run but that the cost of victory will be substantial.
Al Qaeda must have a secure base where it can plan, train and recover after operations. The complex international network the group has created can survive for a long time without such a base. But even under the best of circumstances, maintaining al Qaeda without a secure geographical anchor will erode its operational stability. And these are not the best of circumstances.
Al Qaeda operations in Europe, Africa and Asia are under tremendous pressure, and losses appear to be mounting. Without a base for reorganizing and replenishing the network, al Qaeda will eventually crack.
The centerpiece of U.S. global strategy is the denial of such a sanctuary, and this is much more important than capturing the leading personalities of al Qaeda. Without a home base, the leadership cannot manage its forces effectively.
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(c) 2002 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Victory and Beyond for Washington . . .