<"The Saudi Challenge" by Thomas Friedman (NYT, Feb 20). The excitement of Palindrome Day dulled my wits.

The item that really got my attention is the second paragraph:
Today, with the oil boom over, the Saudi economy can no longer afford the welfare net that once guaranteed every Saudi a government job. Since 1980 Saudi Arabia's population has exploded from 7 million to 19 million, thanks to one of the highest birth rates in the world and zero family planning. Meanwhile, per-capita oil income has fallen from $19,000, at the height of the oil boom in 1981, to about $7,300 today. With less money trickling down to sustain extended families or bloated government offices, several million Saudis are now unemployed, underemployed or taking jobs they never would have before.

Now, I ran the numbers, and it seems that $19,000 per cap x 7 million caps = $133,000,000,000, whereas $7,300 per cap x 19 million caps = $138,700,000,000. This doesn't look to me as if the oil boom is over. It looks to me as if no one is practicing birth control.

This might possibly be the result of the general oppression of Saudi women in the name of Protecting the Weaker Sex. This is by no means a phenomenon unique to Islam, nor is it a phenomenon shared throughout the Islamic world, as illustrated in this study of fertility trends in Iran and in northern Africa (see esp. pp. 19-24). The connection appears to be between literacy/higher education and decreased birth rates, not necessarily work outside of the home.

When one considers that Saudi terrorists, as reported by Friedman, mostly come from an overpopulated, under-educated, poor section of Saudi Arabia where there are too many people and not enough real jobs, the necessity of matching population size to economic conditions is clear. The exciting thing is, women, when educated, self-reliant and not intimidated by their husbands, will take responsibility for this themselves, at a personal level. Where women are kept ignorant, isolated and (you'll excuse the expression) cowed, half of the population is prevented from making important decisions that influence their lives and their country's prosperity.

If the madness is to stop, it is imperative to educate the world's girls.

Regards--
Mary Anne