The purpose. I would think there's a lot of information in that tape. The key is the purpose of it. From what I've seen, very little, the purpose isn't clear. Or it's a screwy way to send a message, and I don't think they are that dumb. But I still think it says a lot about OBL.

It could be a "pep talk". It could be a sort of a general propaganda message. Or it could be attempting to send another message.

Three things to consider are that the tape doesn't have an obviously well and alive OBL, doesn't deal with current issues, and doesn't have a very good propaganda message.

I suspect it to be a "rally the troops" sort of thing. It's a lousy propaganda tape, though there might be a third reason for it.

If it's a "pep talk", since they showed OBL, I would think they would want to show an alive, healthy, vibrant OBL. An animated OBL holding a reasonably current newspaper, for instance.

They didn't. Then, a reasonable assumption is they couldn't. It makes sense that the only reason they couldn't would be if he were dead, ill, or seriously injured.

A problem with assuming it's a "pep talk" is that it would really be demoralizing, raising more questions among the true believers than answers. Is our leader alive and well or very sick? Could be an "our leader would want us to carry on" sort of thing, though.

Another interesting question is why the voice-over, the narrator, isn't talking about more recent events. Either they don't have the capacity to "dub" voice after the initial taping, or they didn't care to.

I suspect they could "dub", unless whoever is responsible is living a very low-tech, isolated life. That would say something.

Or they didn't care. Why wouldn't they care? Could it be a message to each other that OBL isn't alive and well and there's been a changing of the guard?

Well, they have other ways of sending those, I'm sure, but maybe some folks in remote areas who they would want to know wouldn't find out any other way than TV.

That would explain the old images, no current OBL, the dated sound track.

I would bet that if one knew the reason for the release of that tape one could figure out a lot about OBL. Whatever it is, I think from that tape it's a safe assumption that OBL is a sick or dead man. A safe assumption, that is, if one keeps in the front of their mind it's only an assumption.

Arf