I predict the Iraq war will start shortly after the full moon (18 March) plus or minus 2 days. If we're still in a holding pattern after 20 March then Blair is in big trouble. He does not have to worry about a vote of no confidence because the Conservative Party supports his policy against Iraq. However his own party (the Labour Party) could remove him as prime minister. Bush is faced with an interesting timing problem dictated by the politics of allies. Ideally he would like to wait for the Turks to get their political act together and allow the US to form a northern Iraqi front. However by the time the Turks do get their act together, Blair maybe sitting on a back bench in the House of Commons with the United Kingdom removed from the anti-Saddam alliance. It's interesting how preparing for war limits one's options. The mobilized army in Kuwait is costing the US billions of dollars per month. We can be fairly sure that Saddam will use biological and chemical weapons. Therefore our troops will have to be wearing what are effectively HazMat suits while fighting the Iraqis. At 110 deg. F, a soldier would pass out from heat exhaustion in a few minutes if he were stuck in a HazMat suit. Therefore summer gives the Iraqis a huge (war winning?) advantage. We are timing out. Bush must start this war within two weeks or stand down.

Gary