If one reads my earlier posts to the Habitable Zone, I've supported this war against Iraq from the very beginning. I believe this is a "good" and moral war. However this was also a very dangerous war. There were many scenarios were this thing could have blown up in our faces. John Keegan is arguably the world's best living authority on war (he wrote a history of World War II that is absolutely brilliant). Keegan recently wrote some very interesting articles in the London Times (use Google to find them) where he tried to analysis Saddam's tactics. He could not do it! Saddam showed no tactics that could be analysed. The Iraqi defense was so poorly organized that they did not even blow up their bridges crossing the Tigris and Euphrates rivers (any idiot could see doing that was vital). Of course American Special Ops almost certainly played a role in keeping those bridges intact. However there has been a strong luck factor here. For example, I dreaded the prospect of the U.S. starting this war without having access to a northern front through Turkey. Fortunately General Franks saw that this war could be won through a single front using a long and exposed supply line (NOT intuitive and historically incorrect).

There was an advantage in not having a northern front: We owe Turkey almost nothing in this war and have considerable freedom to make any deal we like with the Kurds. The Coalition will hopefully take the northern third of Iraq (excluding Tikrit which will be bloody) with very few casualties. This is an example of what the Greek historian Polybius called "Tyche" or luck/fortune. The Greeks worshipped Tyche like a goddess (many city states had Tyche on the obverse of their coins). The ancient Greeks knew that a country could do everything right in terms of strategy, staffing, material, etc. but Tyche could still opt for military defeat.

The United States will win this recent conflict mainly through the skill of its leaders and the bravery of its soldiers. However luck still plays a significant role. If we keep getting involved in these Middle Eastern conflicts, the day will come that Tyche punishes us for our pride.

Gary