The best the GOP could do in '96 was Bob Dole. (Anyone even remember Walter Mondale? I had to think for a while to come up with the name.)

It's always strategically easier to contest an open seat than one with an incumbent. Watch for a lot of early drop-outs among the Dems who've already declared, maybe even before Iowa and New Hampshire. Why spend the time and money?

Of course, if the economy takes a dive... yeah, I know the Dow's at 9000 - that's this week (tho I didn't hear today's closing numbers). The Bush Doctrine in foreign policy - "If youre not an American, you must be anti-American" - can't lose. Setbacks in rebuilding Afghanistan and Iraq can be easily waved off as failures of the people there, not of their 'minders'. Same goes for the latest attempt at mediating Israel/Palestine. Another catastrophic breach of 'homeland' security can only play to Bush's hand, while we all wrap ourselves tighter in the flag (pay no attention to the "Made in China" label).

...a strong leader in what is just the beginning of a long period of crisis, and the nation is in no mood at all to change leaders now, in these extraordinary times.

That reminded me: 2008 fits very well in the Generational schema of Strauss & Howe's work. It'll be just as interesting to see who the Republicans anoint as Bush's successor (count Cheyney out: the ol' ticker) as it will be to see the Democrats lining up at the other end of the tilting yard.

It's only three years until the 2006 mid-term elections - that should be the bellwether for 2008.