Success, failure seem equally likely in Iraq

KEY QUOTES:

"It's too soon to tell. Indeed, it is too soon to tell anything conclusive about Iraq. In a fluid situation like Iraq, there are 10 things happening every day. All you want is that six out of the 10 be positive and moving upward - unlike Afghanistan, where only three out of 10 are positive and moving downward. Right now, talking to U.S. officials, I'd say the score in Iraq is about five to five."

"Contrary to the blather of the Bush team, we have not finished the war, and we have yet to establish an interim Iraqi political authority that can eventually work together to govern Iraq - instead of Saddam's iron fist or ours."

"If you see Iraqis starting to work together in a centrist coalition, and security being consolidated by a rebuilt Iraqi police force, then you can be just a little bit optimistic. If you don't see that happening, you can start worrying."

"If I were President Bush, though, and my political life depended on Iraq being a success, I would already be worrying. I would have doubled the number of U.S. troops there and be throwing so much food and investment into Iraq that people there would think they had won the jackpot. Why the president is not doing that beats me, and it could end up beating him."