NEO Detection, Impact Prevention and Mitigation Recommendations

After assessing the nature and scope of the NEO impact threat, and in consultation with many leading authorities on space issues, we are recommending three steps to deal with the problem. The first will increase our nation’s ability to detect an NEO impact in time, the second will lay the groundwork for deflecting such an object, and the third will help mitigate the consequences of an actual NEO impact. Such steps would entail a relatively modest commitment of resources, an investment warranted by the potential consequences of misjudging the NEO impact threat to Earth.

Recommendation #1:

Immediately Increase the Scope of and Funding for NEO Detection

The United States is currently engaged in a search for all NEOs greater than 0.62 miles (a kilometer) in diameter. The effort is producing results, but only a few dozen researchers are funded to conduct this basic survey. Resources committed to this work have been extremely modest and not commensurate with the potential threat; thus, additional investment in search programs is both appropriate and prudent. A dramatic improvement in the rate at which asteroids and comets are discovered would likely result if the United States were to increase the current level of funding, now at about $3.5 million per year, to at least $20 million annually.

We recommend that Congress take the following measures to enhance the search for NEOs:

Increase search activities for detection of NEOs 0.62 miles (1 kilometer) in diameter and larger. Researchers estimate that only one-half of such NEOs have been located. The pace of identification should be accelerated. Support for Southern Hemisphere search activities may further increase the discovery rate and should be expanded. Even when NASA achieves its current goal of identifying 90% of large NEOs, the undiscovered remainder will, of course, still pose a potential hazard. Congress should direct NASA to pursue the search for all such objects to statistical completion.

Expand the search effort to include detection and tracking of NEOs smaller than 0.62 miles (1 kilometer). NEOs such as 2002 MN (about a hundred yards across) are not currently the target of any formal search program. Rather, they are discovered as by-products of the search for larger objects. Because an impact of even a relatively small NEO could still destroy a major city, the United States should establish the goal of predicting any close approach to Earth by any asteroid larger than 200 yards in diameter.

Increase funding for the Minor Planet Center (MPC) to $1 million annually. The MPC is responsible for the collection, computation and dissemination of the characteristics and orbits of asteroids and comets. As the central international clearinghouse for tracking NEOs, it should be funded at a level more commensurate with its important role in understanding and addressing the NEO threat.

Provide funding for more and better instrumentation and additional follow-up observations. In addition to maintaining existing optical and radar search programs, NASA should be given the added resources and mandate to enhance the instrumentation dedicated to NEO detection and to respond to NEO discoveries with more detailed observations. Such radar and spectroscopic observations are vital to refine asteroid orbits and determine an NEO’s general composition.

Recommendation #2:

Expand Current NEO Exploration Programs

Given the real probability of an asteroid or comet impact, our nation must understand NEO characteristics well enough to develop practical methods for diversion. Without adequate knowledge of the composition and mechanical properties of such objects, developing diversion strategies will be problematic at best and fatally ineffective at worst.

Therefore, we recommend that the United States take the following action:

Mount additional near-term robotic missions to selected asteroids and Earth-approaching comets. By visiting NEOs in our own “neighborhood,” we can determine their composition, measure their structural and mechanical properties, and provide the knowledge essential to preventing impacts on Earth by similar objects.

Begin planning now to send explorers to nearby asteroids and Earth-approaching comets. Developing the capability to send astronauts to NEOs (on round-trips lasting just a few months) is the next logical human spaceflight goal for the United States. Such expeditions will help provide protection to Earth, serve as an insurance policy against future NEO impacts and, in the process, expand our ability to use the vast and beneficial resources of space. Ideally, these voyages should immediately follow the completion of the International Space Station; planning for them should start now.

Our nation should direct that Americans once again leave low-Earth orbit . . . this time to protect our planetary home and potentially our collective futures.

Recommendation #3:

Develop NEO Contingency and Response Plans

Just as the federal government plans appropriate responses to disasters such as hurricanes and earthquakes, it should prepare contingency plans for dealing with an NEO impact. The government should begin planning now to deflect any NEO found to pose a potential threat to Earth. It should also plan to meet emergency response and disaster relief needs created by an impending or actual NEO impact. This government/private sector planning should include international coordination to address the issues of NEO detection, potential hazards and actual impacts.

To guide essential contingency planning, we recommend the following:

Establish an Interagency NEO Task Force to address the NEO Impact Threat: This Task Force should be composed of senior representatives from appropriate government agencies: Department Of Homeland Security; Department of Defense; Department of State; Department of Energy; NASA; Federal Emergency Management Agency; National Science Foundation; Office of Science and Technology Policy; and the National Research Council. The Task Force should also include necessary representatives from industry and academia. It should be assigned responsibilities for NEO impact contingency planning, including identification, monitoring and analysis, international coordination of NEO search efforts, impact response and mitigation, and deflection strategies and technology.

Establish an NEO Impact Response Center: This Center should be assigned responsibilities to (1) collate accurate information from existing sources on the threat potential of any potentially hazardous NEOs (2) distribute such information and analysis to public agencies, both in the United States and overseas; (3) establish and implement contingency plans, to include the actions required to deflect an NEO if necessary, and (4) insure that an unexpected impact is not misinterpreted as an attack on any country. The Center should collect astronomical and technical data about NEOs provided by existing research and search efforts. More importantly, it should verify this information and provide authoritative analysis to the President (or Secretary of Homeland Security), and the relevant committees of the Congress in the event of a projected NEO impact. The Center would enable U.S. civil and military authorities to develop the appropriate responses to an impact prediction and disseminate impact information worldwide.

--Chris Vancil

PS. I would suggest, those of living in the USA, should support this by writing to our own congress folks and telling them in sensible terms why its prudent to protect ourselves. Most people in the science community studing Minor Planets I've talked to about EP either don't know him or think he is a nut!