What would have been the best and worst case scenarios concerning the
recent war in Iraq? Imagine in a parallel universe that as Bush was cranking
up the pressure on Saddam, Saddam decided that the US was serious and began negotiating for exile. It seems in the best case scenario Saddam would have successfully negotiated for exile to a friendly country for himself, his
family and major Baath party members. In exchange, a UN mandated
international force would have taken over Iraq under a Security Council
resolution. Even in this best case scenario there would have been terrorist
violence. However the terrorists would have been killing UN troops rather
than American soldiers. Was this scenario ever really an option? Saddam
knew there were mass graves filled with tens of thousands of his victims.
Saddam knew that no amount of negotiating would have provided immunity from
crimes of that sort. Also supposably Saddam was surrounded by sychophants.
It's possible that exile was never really presented to him as a viable option.

A trickier problem in speculation is determining the worse case scenario.
In my opinion that worst case situation would have occurred if Saddam had
adopted a "Scorched Earth Tactic" similar to what the Russians used against
Napoleon. Early on, the Americans stated that they intended to rebuild
Iraq and turn it into a democracy. To thwart this intention, Saddam could
have burned every Iraqi city down to the the ground, blown up every bridge,
mined every road, blown up all the oil wells and dynamited all the big
reservoirs resulting in massive flooding which destroyed the Iraqi heartland.
I still believe Saddam had WMDs. Saddam could have used them against
American troops resulting in significant US combat losses and horrific
colateral damage. Saddam could have turned the war into such a bloodbath
that Blair's Labour government would have faced a "No Confidence Vote". If
the British had withdrawn then popular support within the US might have
collapsed. The US anti-war demonstrations could have transformed from the
harmless media circus that it was into something of actual political
significance. In summary, the Iraqi war could have turned into a classic
Pyrrhic victory with the post-war situation collapsing into a
Soviet/Afganistan style defeat for the US.

Fortunately / Unfortunately the actual situation never reached either of
these extremes. Giving the worst case scenario a zero and the best case
scenario a hundred, I'd give the actual situation an eighty. Things
are not perfect but could have been a whole lot worse. I find
myself wondering, was Bush clearly presented by his advisors with the
best and worst case scenarios? If I was President, I would have been
frightened into inaction by the possibility of the worse case scenario
(I'd make a lousy President). I know a good general officer is able to boil
down lots of conflicting information and then make a snap decision. What
sort of mentality enables a President/general to make these sorts of
decisions?

Gary