re: Vial of Botulinum vs tons of weaponized toxin
UNSCOM found more than once that Iraq was seeking tons of growth medium. Tons.
Second, no it's not simple. But according the the FBI, a single rogue scientist did exactly that with some anthrax in 2001. At the bottom of a pond.
Now, I don't believe the FBI. But we're not talking about a single terrorist or a terrorist group here. This is a state. With state-funded scientists, proper labs.