re: Who didn't think Arnold was winning?
I don't know what else the Mercury News may have had to say about the poll. But the headline you quoted was an accurate statement. It was a story about poll results. They compared them to a prior poll's results. The difference between the two polls showed movement in the direction of no recall.
"Uncertain"? It was an election and they are always uncertain. This one more than most.
So to show no bias whatsoever, they should have said "Poll shows that Arnold will certainly win"?