After 9/11 the Bush Administration successfully got congress to inact investment tax credits in the form of additional 1st year depreciation on expendatures made for capital purchases.

These credits expire effective 1/1/2005, which will encourage companies to move much of their capital purchases planned for 2005 and later up and into 2004. I believe this will make 2004 a blockbuster year for capital spending which makes the probability of a recession at a great big zero.

And with companies trying to avoid the 40% depreciation rule, most of those expendatures will be made well in advance of the 4th quarter.

By forcing a phase-out of Bush's tax cuts after 9/11 the Democrats have handed Bush a gifthorse election, and investors a gifthorse buying opportunity.

Those hoping for a bad economy to sink the Bush administration are SOL.

Scott Evil