Everyone knows the Libya attack was planned ahead of time, probably by terrorists. But it wasn't known at the time. The carefully coordinated military nature of the attack (not the accompanying riot) is all the evidence anyone needs, and I'm certain that's clear to everyone. I know it was clear to me when I first posted about it the day after it happened. How to have predicted it, or responded to it, is not all that clear.

The terrorists may have taken advantage of the demonstration over the film as cover for their attack, or they may even have deliberately organized and kicked off the demonstration as cover for their activities. But the rash of attacks on US embassies elsewhere was a spontaneous response to the events in Libya (and the film) Arabs watch CNN too.). It probably was not part of the terrorist plan, although they certainly did everything they could to inflame it and keep it going because it played right into their hands.

How do I know this? Because only the Libyan consulate was attacked by paramilitary units. Everywhere else, there were riots, flag burnings, slogan spraying, and other street manifestations, but no mortars, no heavy machine guns, no "technicals", no RPGs. It was mobs fighting with local police, not a commando operation like Al-Quaeda might mount. Most likely, it was a spontaneous worldwide outburst that took Al-Quaeda as much by surprise as it did us.

Why Libya, and not anywhere else? Because it is precisely in Libya where the Obama policy was working out perfectly. It was priority one for the anti-US elements in Libya (not to mention outsiders) to do whatever it took to dislodge us from there and fill in the vacuum left by Kadaffy's demise. As later events proved, we have lots of friends in Libya, both among the people and the authorities. They supported our role in their revolution, and subsequently, they have not only demonstrated in solidarity with us, they have run the Al-Quaeda
militias out of town, and reportedly captured suspects.

So why the confusion from the Obama administration? They screwed up, its that simple. In the initial confusion, the film seemed to be the problem, and subsequent reports in the many other embassy flareups around the middle east only seemed to confirm that. As the paramilitary nature of the Benghazi operation came clear, it slowly dawned on everyone involved that THAT operation was a terrorist raid. It was a few days before the facts became clear, the meetings were held, and everyone got his script. Apparently, our UN ambassador never got the memo. (Didn't it seem odd she was being quizzed on this, not Ms Clinton, who as SecState is actually responsible for our embassies?)

So what did the Obama Administration do? They fumbled the ball, they didn't get their stories straight, and they got caught flat-footed. Other than giving the floundering Romney campaign an AHA! moment, which he immediately spilled in his crotch by going off half-cocked about it, what did it prove about anything?

Did the Obama administration have any way of anticipating or avoiding this? No. The bad guys are constantly trying to catch us off-guard, and they are bound to do so every now and then. You can do the usual Monday morning quarterbacking and say "The evidence was there." But Obama is realistically no more to blame
for this than Bush was for not anticipating the attack on 9/11. You will recall I defended his actions on that day when Bowser attacked him for it. Same situation. That's why they call it a surprise attack.

What about now? What is Obama supposed to do? Other than some too-late security precautions and a few veiled threats like the one we handed Egypt, there isn't much we can do. We can't send the fleet offshore and shell Libya. We can't carpet-bomb Cairo. We can't leave all those countries, or conversely, send more troops--that is exactly what Al-Quaeda wants us to do! Other than vague hand-wavings and generalities, the Right has not made one concrete suggestion about how any of this could have been avoided, or how it should be handled now.

Is the Obama administration to be blamed or held responsible for any of this? Sure, they got caught flat-footed, and did not have a contingency plan in place, and they failed to coordinate their response very effectively. So they canme across as rather disorganized and confused, which they were. But would it have made any difference if they had been organized and alert. No. Events would have played out in pretty much the same way. Unless we actually knew where and when the terrorists were going to strike, Mr Obama was forced to respond to them. And his response would still have taken a few days to gel together.

This is all a big deal to the Conservatives because they are desperate, this is all they've got. And except for the loonies, everybody can see that. Unless the civil unrest against US interests in the Mid-East continues, in another week this will all be forgotten.