About ten years from now. Simple straight line extrapolation of current production & consumption trends, along with a running total on the remaining oil reserves gives the following results:

Depletion of Worldwide Oil Reserves

By the year 2032 oil supplies will be very scarce everywhere in the world. Proven reserves of 1 trillion barrels include crude oil, shale oil, tar sands, and natural gas liquids (which are recovered separately from natural gas). Thererefore the estimates include all potential sources of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel for the transportation industry. An additional 955 billion “oil equivalent” barrels of natural gas reserves also exist, for a total of 2 trillion “energy equivalent” barrels of worldwide oil supplies. However this does not translate into application since gasoline, diesel and kerosene cannot be made out of natural gas. Also, the inclusion of tar sand & shale as part of the real oil supply means that a 4-fold price increase in fuel price at the pumps, due to the difficulty of extracting oil from tar sand & shale, will occur long before these oil supplies run out. Producing automotive fuels from coal liquefaction may in fact be more economical than tar sand & shale. Switching to natural gas derivatives (methanol, hydrogen) for transportation fuels may not be feasible because the demand for natural gas for electricity production already exceeds supply, and would necessitate fundamental infrastructure changes. These changes may include hybrid cars, fuel-cell cars, or direct hydrogen fuelling. Therefore transportation needs will likely be met by coal liquefaction, so-called “Clean Coal”, or by biofuels wherever the agricultural resources are available.

Depletion of North American Oil Reserves

Depletion of oil reserves in North America, including Canada, USA, and Mexico, is even more pronounced. All the oil deposits will be severely depleted by the year 2014, while consumption continues to rise. This high demand must be met through increased oil imports from sources outside North America. However these imports cannot be expected to continue beyond 2032 when all the world’s oil reserves will be depleted.

Depletion of South & Central American Oil Reserves

Oil reserves in South & Central American countries should last through the year 2027. If production is increased to meet export demand from North American countries then these reserves will be depleted as early as 2024. However this would require more than double the current production capacity, with many more drilling platforms having to be built. Therefore Central & South American countries cannot fully supply the needs of North America.

Depletion of European Oil Reserves

Europe will run out of oil by the year 2007. With demand for oil comparable to North America, quantities will have to be imported. At the same time increased reliance on renewable energy, alternative fuels and natural gas for electricity generation will be noticed first in European countries before appearing anywhere else.

Depletion of Oil Reserves in the Former Soviet Union

A sharp decrease in oil consumption, by about 50% in the early 1990’s, has doubled the life expectancy of oil supplies in the former Soviet Union. Nevertheless at the current level consumption rate oil reserves will be depleted by the year 2023. Continued demand will likely require imports from Middle Eastern countries, especially the Caspian Sea region.

Depletion of Middle Eastern Oil Reserves

The Middle East has the largest oil reserves in the world and is currently exporting large quantities abroad. However their estimates of remaining quantities may be exaggerated. They are shown to last until the year 2045 which conflicts with other estimates of worldwide oil supplies. This may be evidence of faulty bookkeeping, nonstandard measurements, or blatant exaggeration by OPEC countries for the purpose of boosting exports. Nevertheless increases in production are expected to match increases in worldwide demand as oil reserves elsewhere become depleted. The 13-year margin of error in the predicted depletion of Middle Eastern oil reserves is open to debate.

Depletion of African Oil Reserves

Africa should deplete its oil reserves by the year 2022. Subsequent demand could be satisfied by Middle Eastern imports, or by renewable technology similar to the Europeans.

Depletion of Oil Reserves in Asia-Pacific Countries

Extremely high growth in oil consumption combined with limited reserves result in oil being depleted in APEC countries by the year 2014. Continued consumption at this rate beyond 2014 will require very large imports from Middle Eastern countries potentially resulting in severe shortages and high prices worldwide. In spite of sufficient reserves, production capacity in Middle Eastern countries may have difficulty consistently meeting demand beyond the year 2014, and high prices may persist after that.

Oil Depletion in OPEC-Member Countries

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has a worldwide membership including Venezuela, Nigeria, Algeria, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Indonesia, and Qatar. More than 75% of the total estimated worldwide oil reserves are located in OPEC countries. By the year 2010 over 50% of worldwide oil will come from OPEC countries. By 2015 this burden will shift to OPEC countries located in the Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia. The most optimistic estimates show a total depletion of OPEC oil reserves by the year 2043 while more conservative estimates indicate the year 2032. Due to political instability in the Middle East the strategic date to keep in mind is the year 2010. This is when greater than half the world’s supply of oil will shift to OPEC. Just 5 years later we can expect persistent price increases and shortages as high demand from Western as well as APEC nations begins to outstrip the growing oil supply infrastructure of OPEC. As such we have just 8 years to reduce and/or eliminate our dependence on oil. Otherwise the transportation industry will experience greatly increased fuel costs with trickledown effects throughout the economy. New sources of automotive fuel can be realized through “clean coal” and coal liquefaction technologies to directly produce gasoline, diesel & jet fuel albeit at higher cost and greater environmental destruction, or, through a renewable technology. In the latter route biofuels may be the best choice, since multi-million-year-old biomass was the ultimate and original source of petroleum used as fuel today, and freshly grown biomass would make a superior fuel (bioethanol, biodiesel).

Source of oil statistics:
http://www.bp.com/

These extrapolations agree with the following chart, indicating a more complex "Hubbert Peak", where production sags as it becomes more difficult to extract oil from depleted oil deposits. In this perhaps more accurate scenario, the world never runs out of oil, but reserves simply drop exponentially (very fast initially) forever, with prices climbing so high as to make any alternative competitive. But we can't stop driving cars, in parts of the world where little distribution infrastructure exists, people are starving to death by the millions.

Alternative Transportation Fuels

In the year 2002 the total oil consumption in North America was 23.487 million barrels
daily, of which 15 million barrels daily was used exclusively for transportation (diesel, gasoline, jet fuel). This represents 30.4 percent of the total oil consumed worldwide. Since burning a barrel of petroleum liberates 6.12 billion joules of energy, it can be shown that the North American transportation sector consumes 33,510 trillion kJ of energy annually. This energy is used primarily in the form of liquid fuels and burned inside internal combustion engines. When fuel cells become affordable they might achieve double the fuel efficiency and reduce the total energy consumption by half. But what fuel should we use? And how do we make the transition?

1. Biofuels (ethanol is compatible with IC engines and fuel cells, and can be mixed with gasoline)
2. Flexible Fuel Vehicles (facilitates transition to biofuels without buying a new vehicle)

Those are serious steps! Let's see if we can do that much.