Hi JimO -

Just some thinking out loud here.

First, the US position.

The US stands alone in tolerating Israel's new land grab in the West Bank. Both Bush Jr and Kerry support it; no one stand a chance in the political process if they oppose it - you can't even talk about it without being labelled anti-semetic... The consequence is that diplomatically, the US is isolated.

The dollar-oil tie is severed, as the Moslem economic embargo of the US takes effect, and other currencies can be used for oil trading. As Buffet points out, the US has $2.5 trillion outstanding, national assets are ca. $50 trillion...

Wonder about that $2+ gallon of gasoline? Under Kissinger's 1975 agreement, the US guarantees Israel's oil supply - Russia has been Israel's primary supplier, but this probably changed several month's ago with the new "re-structuring" of Russia's oil industry, if not with Sharon's new "piece plan"...

My g*d what a 'efing nightmare...

This is the situation under which Bush Jr's plan will be evaluated... ISS will continue, as the public likes the idea of working peacefully together with other nations in space, but manned Mars flight is dead, gets deader with every new image from the Mars rovers...

As far as manned space goes, the only politically viable program is Dr. Mazanek's CAPS system for using the Moon for defending the Earth against asteroid and comet impact. However, the space news channels are so dominated by the manned Mars nuts that CAPS can't get any traction... In other words, the general public does not want to go the way of the dinosaur, while the editors and readers of the space press, and most space activists, remain focused on manned Mars flight...

On the other hand, the first Emperor of China was killed by impact, and it is one of things that most educated Chinese learn early on in life, as we here learn that George Washington chopped down the cherry tree...

So far China has limited funds, and is suceeding well in meeting the adopted State goals for manned space technology at the pace set by those funding levels...

The problem is evolving the Party's role in a democratic China...

The failure of the Party system in selecting and controlling the state executive has been demonstrated again and again, and Trotsky's observations borne out... China's leadership is aware of this, and their thinking may be clearly seen in the anti-corruption drive....

No where is this problem of selection and control of the executive better seen right now than in North Korea, where we see Kim wasting money kidnapping starlets while his people starve, and the Party incapable of removing him from power...

My thinking is going to inflame US conservatives, but there's more than a billion Chinese, and they have more than a few smart people...

I think that the Party will change its function in the following way. There will be a multi-faction electoral process adopted in China, but the Party will control the political education that will be a requirement for running for any office... In other words, you take your political education, then you join the faction you want and run on their platform...

Put another way, Chinese will need a degree in Political Science to run for office, and the Party will control the education required to get that degree... It may smell of Confucianism, but then...

I'm quite sure that an evolution like this will cause the US conservatives to gasp, as a Party which ensures its place and control for several hundred years is something which they are certain to loathe, but that's my guess as to how it may turn out... Party thinking could evolve under such a framework, while the Party ensures its control of the political process...

As to how the selection and control of the executive will evolve, that's beyond me...

Assuming that this structural problem is solved by this means or some other, and fully democratic processes evolved in China, then could China put together a Moon based international manned effort for planetary defense?

In other words, could China implement the CAPS program?

This would require good relations with Russia, the EU, Japan, and should some such evolution take place, I don't see any problem.

The wild card, at least for a while, will be Taiwan...

ep

Ths Moon impact defense system is going to have to be financed internationally, and the US public will not support a go-it-alone stance...