If India beats China with an unmmaned-orbiter to the moon,
China's government may feel motivated/provoked to a game of
one-upmanship over India.
China might not have the resources to send two men in a Shenzhou
to do a simple "figure-eight" around the moon & Earth in 2008 [their olympic year],
inspite of Mr. Coren's and my previous prediction,
but by 2010 China will have a Long March booster than can send 10-12 metric tons to GTO.
The Shenzhou weighs only 8.5 tons loaded.
The Delta-vee from GTO to the moon is not that large.
2011 anybody? [2011: Chinese centennial year of their republic]

Jacob

"We choose to go to the moon, and do those OTHER THINGS, not because they are easy, but because they are hard." John F. Kennedy.