Whether one likes them or not, politics aside, etc., it seems to take a strong, repressive regime to hold together a "country" such as Iraq.

In recent history it took Tito in the former Yugoslavia and Stalin in the former USSR. When those two folks died, the "countries" started to come apart.

One of the more credible scenarios of WW3 was that the Soviet Union would disintegrate in the face of all-out war without someone with Stalin's power and credibility leading.

And it took Hussein in Iraq to hold that country together. The fight he had with the Kurds was over their "succession", more of a civil war, than just deciding to gas them. The Kurds are already campaigning for their own country, again.

So, to answer your question, if history is an indicator, Iraq will disintegrate.

And that could be, and was, foretold.