Since Napoleon geographic boundaries have defined nations. For those nations to survive the way they can survive change is only if that change is internal.

The regime may change, but the unity of the state is intact as long as the loyalty is to the nation and those common symbols that make and keep it a unique nation. Ethnicity, religion, race, etc. are all elemenents that tend to keep people together in a nation.

A study of history will reveal that revolutions come about when there are rising expectations in an area. A certain level of prosperity give people the leisure to look beyond survival and how their lot could change for the better if the regime is no longer constraining them.

In Iraq we have removed the contraints. Shurely the Kurds will demand their conditions be bettered--without Saddam this is inevitable.

The majority of Shia will favor opting out of a secular state and will agitate for a theocracy and will be aided in this effort by Iran.

The Sunni will realize they have to circle the wagons to survive.

The odds are about 8-5 that Iraq will face a balkanization within five years or less and will emerge as 3 or 4 new nations.

Publius