Lotsa time left, there's the R convention and it's bump, and Bush should trot out OBL by then. There may be an attack. And Bush may discover something like Kerry being overpaid by the military and not refunding $38.15, which with interest is now a lot of money and would help the deficit if only Kerry were responsible, and forming committees of underpaid vets complaining about that.

The poll.

Electoral college implications.
"At first glance, John Kerry's numbers look even better than they did during the Democratic Convention. But his lead may be more fragile than it seems.

"The latest Zogby Interactive poll, President Bush musters a lead in just two battleground states. The other 14 states in the poll go to Mr. Kerry, giving him his biggest lead -- in terms of the number of states -- since Zogby began conducting twice-a-month polls for WSJ.com in late May.

"If these results were to play out on Election Day, Mr. Kerry would score an easy victory. But there are a lot of caveats to consider. First, let's run the numbers.

"To analyze Zogby's results, we start by assuming that the District of Columbia and the 34 states that aren't in the battlegrounds poll will vote for the same political party that they did in the 2000 election. That gives Mr. Bush 189 electoral votes and Mr. Kerry 172 votes. A total of 177 votes are up for grabs in the 16 battlegrounds; a candidate needs 270 to win the White House.

"Adding the 152 votes from the 14 states that Mr. Kerry leads in the latest poll gives him a total of 324 electoral votes. (That's his highest total yet in our analyses of Zogby's polls, topping the previous high of 322 electoral votes that he had in on July 12.) Mr. Bush's two states have 25 electoral votes and give him a total of 214. "