What's more important is the state by state polls

Current Events » in reply to and Zogby has a 2 point lead, ARG has a 1 point lead

Larry J — 9/3/2004 9:13:22 PM (archived)

None of these polls really mean anything other than artificial news and bragging rights. This is especially true for the national polls. As everyone who skipped civics class learned 4 years ago, it's the electoral college that matters. That's based on the state by state election results.

Zogby has proven pretty reliable when it comes to national percentages. His track record for state contests is somewhat less reliable. For example, in 2002, his poll showed that Senator Wayne Allard of Colorado was heading for certain defeat. Allard won by 8 points, if memory serves. I suspect that polls that specialize on certain states will be more accurate at predicting the results for those states than most of the national polls.

The whole thread (10 posts)

Early polls from Zogby - ebnelson - 9/3/2004 7:41:43 PM
- Good luck with that - Tony - 9/3/2004 7:46:16 PM
  - Time is reporting an 11 point lead for Bush - Larry J - 9/3/2004 8:14:26 PM
    - and Zogby has a 2 point lead, ARG has a 1 point lead - Tony - 9/3/2004 8:20:09 PM
      - Zogby was reporting Kerry up 50-43 just a couple weeks ago - Larry J - 9/3/2004 9:28:44 PM
      - What's more important is the state by state polls - Larry J - 9/3/2004 9:13:22 PM
        
        re: What's more important is the state by state polls - Chris Vancil - 9/4/2004 7:41:46 PM
        
        In the last week or two, Bush has been doing MUCH better in the state polls - Tony - 9/3/2004 9:27:04 PM
        
        Yes This Ridiculous System - Mark Eby - 9/4/2004 3:20:59 AM
      - This needs to "settle out" a bit before real information comes out of the polls. (n/t) - Tom Brosz - 9/3/2004 8:29:20 PM

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