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Off Topic » in reply to I wonder how they can say this - "Time running out for quake prediction"

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Tom Brosz — 9/4/2004 8:29:04 PM (archived)

If someone says there's a 50-50 chance of something hitting by a particular deadline, there's probably a mathematical method to tell what the chances are in given time periods before and after that. (i.e. ten days later odds drop to 30-70 or something like that.) Unfortunately, I don't know the math involved.

The whole thread (12 posts)

I wonder how they can say this - "Time running out for quake prediction" - Bowser - 9/4/2004 5:12:05 PM
- Statistics - Tom Brosz - 9/4/2004 8:29:04 PM
  - If I say there's a 50-50 chance of tails showing up, and it comes up heads, - - - - Bowser - 9/4/2004 11:47:07 PM
- If you'll remember - jms - 9/4/2004 5:40:42 PM
  - In a [possibly] related story. - Jacob Samorodin - 9/4/2004 8:03:44 PM
    - the Mojo is the boundry between the upper crust and the mantle. - jms - 9/4/2004 8:46:10 PM
      - Insert your own "mojo" joke here... (n/t) - Tom Brosz - 9/5/2004 5:11:37 AM
        
        sorry 'bout all the errors...not paying enough attention! (n/t) - jms - 9/5/2004 2:51:04 PM
        
        Typos aren't important here, but I can't resist when one turns out funny. (n/t) - Tom Brosz - 9/6/2004 4:01:49 AM
      - Corrected title: "...between the lower crust and upper mantle..." (n/t) - jms - 9/4/2004 8:53:57 PM
  - There was a 5.2 Earthquake to hit SoCal on June 15th. - Lee - 9/4/2004 6:45:51 PM
    - I think they predicted bigger - jms - 9/4/2004 8:47:46 PM

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