re: Please describe scenario where ineffective missile defense system kills more people than no missile defense system.
- You behave diplomatically in a way that takes into account an active missile defense. Attack happens where it would not if you had followed a more moderate policy. Defense does not work after all.
- Opponents think you have a missile defense, so they counter by building more missiles than otherwise.
- opponents think you have a missile defense, so they contrive to get their nukes off of missiles and onto shipping containers instead. Spend all the money they save on missiles, buying more nukes.
- Opponents think you have a missile defense, so they start looking at ways to base their missiles closer to your shores on shorter range missiles, or cruise missiles, or motorboats or whatever.
etc.