OK, forget it
The "insurgents" were the supporters of Joe Blow in my scenario (not an analogy, by the way).
My point was, if insurgency is not tacitly supported by the general population, it can't last. If the Iraqui population truly wanted the US to "win", they would wipe out the "insurgents" in short order, either by betraying them, evicting them, or simply killing them. I haven't heard of that happening.