Not at all. It is the NON-randomness of the reporting that skews early results.

Current Events » in reply to If they aren't counting all the Bush votes first, Kerry is in a lot of trouble.

Not at all. It is the NON-randomness of the reporting that skews early results.

David F Mayer — 11/3/2004 2:36:53 AM (archived)

Precincts close and votes are tallied based on many factors such as available parking and public transportation. Then the certified results must be HAND CARRIED to the county boards of elections, which depends on traffic. Reporting by phone is NOT permitted anywhere. Only SIGNED and CERTIFIED results on paper count. The entire process is totally NON-random and therefore any projection based on them is faulty. Only proper random samples can be be used for projection, and these are not.

I still wouldn't bet a single cent either way.

"It ain't over 'til it's over" -- Yogi Berra

The whole thread (29 posts)

It is now 9:05 pm EST. Does anybody have any firm projections yet? - David F Mayer - 11/3/2004 2:05:58 AM
- Arizona called for Bush - FrankC - 11/3/2004 4:23:16 AM
- Florida - Tom Brosz - 11/3/2004 3:58:16 AM
  - And Kerry has 12 states + DC. Now, let me see, here, a second. - Bowser - 11/3/2004 4:29:50 AM
    - Don't worry. - Tom Brosz - 11/3/2004 5:06:06 AM
      - Don't want to hear it - you set the point spread, and lost. 'Nuff. (n/t) - Bowser - 11/3/2004 5:21:46 AM
  - CNN has Bush five points ahead in Florida at 94 percent of precincts. - Tom Brosz - 11/3/2004 4:18:05 AM
  - California called for Kerry by CNN. - Tom Brosz - 11/3/2004 4:02:53 AM
    - Probably based on exit polls. I think that Kerry is going to win this one tonight. (n/t) - David F Mayer - 11/3/2004 4:04:17 AM
      - I disagree. I think Bush has got it. - Gary - 11/3/2004 4:11:42 AM
      - re: Probably based on exit polls. - Tom Brosz - 11/3/2004 4:08:28 AM
        
        In the past few minutes, it has begun to look like a victory for Kerry. I am sorry, but that is the way it looks. (n/t) - David F Mayer - 11/3/2004 4:09:32 AM
  - Pennsylvania looks like it is going to Kerry. When California pops into the Kerry column (if it happens), Kerry will have a majority of electoral votes. - David F Mayer - 11/3/2004 4:02:13 AM
    - you need to understand the electoral vote process better - p - 11/3/2004 5:23:06 AM
      - You need to understand the accuracy of DFM's predictions ;-) (n/t) - Tony - 11/3/2004 6:31:11 PM
  - BTW, I'm not watching TV at all. - Tom Brosz - 11/3/2004 4:00:52 AM
    - And just what are you wearing? - Bowser - 11/3/2004 5:22:34 AM
      - Pajamas, of course. ;) (n/t) - Tom Brosz - 11/3/2004 6:18:16 AM
- Here's one: Ohio joins Florida as the states to decide it all -- in a few days. (n/t) - Fox - 11/3/2004 3:47:30 AM
- Wife Says Kerry Spokesman Sounds Like Baghdad Bob - Mark Eby - 11/3/2004 3:42:31 AM
- In terms of Electoral Votes, Kerry is getting his but kicked. - Gary - 11/3/2004 3:36:49 AM
  - I do not yet see it that way. I still feel that it is too close to call. - David F Mayer - 11/3/2004 3:42:22 AM
    - Yes. You know How CA is going to fall and key midwest states too close to call - Mark Eby - 11/3/2004 3:46:58 AM
- If they aren't counting all the Bush votes first, Kerry is in a lot of trouble. (n/t) - Bowser - 11/3/2004 2:22:02 AM
  - Not at all. It is the NON-randomness of the reporting that skews early results. - David F Mayer - 11/3/2004 2:36:53 AM
    - In other words they could be counting all the Bush votes first. (n/t) - Bowser - 11/3/2004 2:49:31 AM
      - re: In other words they could be counting all the Bush votes first. - David F Mayer - 11/3/2004 2:55:36 AM
        
        Yes, Bush votes counted 1st - phil - 11/3/2004 3:30:48 AM
        
        Also, I believe. - Bowser - 11/3/2004 3:38:56 AM

Recent posts

On this day in Current Events

The whole thread (29 posts)