Interesting theory.
We would learn a lot by finding out exactly who did do it. According to the manufacturer of the action figure, such figures have been shipped to Kuwait for sale there, so they would be available to almost anyone.
Others have pointed out that the terrorists, if they were the source, may not have been aiming this at Americans, but at the considerably-less discerning Arab street.
BTW, the military is ALWAYS doing head counts. They keep very close track of our people over there.