Hi LJK

Arthur has been known for his fiction... ;-)

His original novella version of "Earthlight" plots a future history that I so wish had happened - only one of his dates was close...

c.1975 Moon landing

c.1975-2000 Inner planets colonised

c.2000 Venus declares independence

c.2010 Mars and OutPlanet colonies (Ganymede, Titan, Triton etc) form Federation

c.2015 First and Last Interplanetary war over Lunar uranium

...in "Sands of Mars" he has the first Saturn Expedition c. 1990, and there's about ~ 5000 people on Mars by c. 1995 or so. He - and plenty of others - was optimistic about expansion to the other planets being humanity's major focus for their effort for the "last quarter of the 20th Century". Instead trillions went into the Cold War and skirmishes like Vietnam. And current expensive imbroglios don't seem to be a change of policy either.

Even in "2001" (c.1968) Clarke still expected +1000 person bases on the Moon by 1994, and routine flights to Mars. His original intro had "the Apollo program dominated the 1970s like a bloodless war" and a 1000 person base by c.1980... what a sheer and utter waste the 1970s really were by comparison.

Slightly less optimistic was the STG's plans for Saturn and Nerva applications...

Two Skylabs
Space-Tug replaces Apollo by 1975
12 man station by 1975
Shuttle by 1975 (for personnel, mind - Saturn for cargo)
Nuclear Shuttle by 1978
100 person orbital base c. 1980
Moon base by c. 1980
Mars flights c. 1981-1983
2nd Mars flight 1985-1986
Mars base c. 1989

...all done with Saturn and Nerva, bar the Shuttle.

Adam