How to go from the red to the black, from the article you posted.

The biggest change from last year's estimates is a 24 per cent or 38 million tonne increase in the emissions expected from vehicle exhausts and smokestacks, especially the former.

That is driven by more refined modelling of the impact of economic growth on energy use.

Petrol and diesel represent about 35 per cent of energy demand and there has been little observable improvement in the efficiency with which those fuels are used.

The other major change is on the credit side of the ledger, where Kyoto's rules allow credits for the carbon dioxide taken out of the atmosphere by forests planted on land not previously forested.

The benefit from these forest sink credits has been revised down by 24 million tonnes or 25 per cent.

Most of that, 15 million tonnes, is because pine trees planted on land previously covered with scrub are not now to be counted as eligible for credits.

But it also reflects a collapse in the rate of new planting of commercial forests and an increase in deforestation, which creates a liability under Kyoto's rules.