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re: brinkmanship? hard to understand

Daniel,

It seems apparent that Ahmadinejad's speech was to distract the population from domestic problems. I already mentioned some of Iran's domestic problems, which are considerable. Another item prompting the speech is Syria, a key chess piece for Iran in the Arab world; rumblings from the US lately threaten Iran's position there. And of course there is Israel's straightforward opposition to nuclear plants in Iran (a life/death concern), which negatively impacts Iran's economic strategy.

Actually, Israel is not the chief foe of the Shiite Islamic Republic; that foe is the Sunnis. Saudi Arabia financed the Pakastini (Sunni) bomb. The Shias want theirs. A nuclear war in the Near East will be mainly a religious war among Moslems, with Israel as a side issue (but nevertheless facing destruction).

Ahmadinejad's hope is that by snarling and baring fangs he will win concessions in the region for Shia interests. Israel is already intensifiying diplomatic efforts, so maybe he is succeeding.

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