I agree near earth space will be seriously colonized before extrasolar destinations. In fact I agree with about everything you said. Both near space and extrasolar destinations will require or at least be largely facilitated by automated robotic bootstrapping technology. Self replicating machines that garner resources and build massive structures largely without human intervention. As far as extrasolar probes, we probably won't launch until we can get a sophisticated enough one there quick enough. We will have to be congnizant to not send a probe that could be overtaken by one with newer technology some time later lol.

Seeding extrasolar systems with new life will truly be Step N and a long ways down the line, but will be a natural extension at some point to our near space colonization. Who knows we might even find something circling a brown dwarf quite close that would be hospitable to life with proper technology.

The tantalizing thing about an extrasolar "new earth" will be of course it isn't our own solar system and the unknown surprises (e.g. maybe life?!) that could be investigated. A "new earth" could radically change our collective view of the universe. Could it be comparable to our understanding that the earth circled the sun, or seeing the blue marble hanging in the black space off of a moonscape?