Seems to have been written before yesterdays' release of the NBC/WSJ poll
4. The polling data on the shutdown is not yet all that useful, and we lack data on most important measures of voter preferences.
...
The best measure of this might be the generic congressional ballot, which measures overall preferences for Democrats or Republicans in congressional races around the country. However, very few generic ballot polls have been released since the shutdown began, and the exceptions are from dubious polling firms like Public Policy Polling and Rasmussen Reports.
....
But measures that put the parties head-to-head are much more valuable. I'll be more convinced about the electoral downside for Republicans if and when we see such a shift in the generic ballot, or, say, in a number of Senate races around the country.
The new poll has that question, and it shows Democrats with an eight point advantage. I wonder if Silver will update his predictions? I tried to look for a later post, but Silver's temporary home is a mess--couldn't find any other posts by Silver on any subject.
Sorry to rain on your parade. Well, not really, truth be told. But you're starting to seem so desperate, Tom, that I am feeling sorry for you. A tiny, microscopic, bit. Take a few deep breaths.