Off Topic — HabitableZone

Off Topic » in reply to re: So what's with the stock market?

re: So what's with the stock market?

Here's something interesting {regarding Purchasing Managers Index}. First definitiion of PMI:
"The Bottom Line: A PMI over 50% means that manufacturing is growing and expanding. A PMI under 50% means that manufacturing is declining. a PMI of 42.7% or more over a long period of time means the economy as a whole is expanding. A PMI of 42.7% of below over a long period of time means the economy as a whole is contracting."
http://beginnersinvest.about.com/library/glossary/bldef-purchasingmanagersindex.htm

"2006 54.8 56.7 55.2 57.3 54.4
2005 56.3 55.6 55.3 53.8 51.8 54.0 56.4 53.5 58.0 58.1 57.3 55.6

2004 62.9 62.2 62.3 63.0 62.9 61.5 61.5 59.6 58.0 56.8 56.9 58.6

2003 52.8 49.9 46.4 46.5 50.0 50.5 52.3 55.5 54.4 57.2 60.6 63.2 "
http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/content.cfm?ItemNumber=10752&CFID=833560&CFTOKEN=38034538

If you look at the history from 1945, one can find it as low as around 30 and as high as 70. Apart from the months just following the Clinton term, the Bush term has been fairly high and steady- higher on average than Clinton term. The whole two terms is about same Clinton terms. The lowest month is Oct 2001: 40.5. It seems that 911 is the cause of that month's drop. Anyhow in Clinton term it never dropped as low as 40.5 in any month, but also during Clinton term it also never got above 60.
In Reagan's term you see some extremes such as 69.9 in one month and in one month it's as low as 35.5. Carter in one month got down to 29.4. Generally, it looks like Clinton's term was better than Reagan's- but Reagan started from a ditch from stagflation. But even considering the recession George W inherited from Clinton, and 911, and the war of terrorism, Bush's terms has on average better numbers.
The stock market does not accurately reflect this performance- there is a lot of fear reflected in stock market price.
The question is when does greed overwhelm this fear- I think you will see greed overcome fear in next couple months.

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