In 2000 the oil R/P ratio for North America was 13.8. In 2006 it is 11.9. So, in spite of oil sands development in Canada, the overall R/P ratio is dropping by nearly 2 years, every 6 years. On that basis it will reach zero by the year 2042. Barring serious environmental problems associated with tar sand processing, tar sands might buoy the R/P ratio for North America before it gets too low.

If the worldwide R/P ratio was dropping (which it isn't) the whole world would run out of oil around the same time. Thanks to improved extraction and refining technology all we actually have to worry about are political crises and natural disasters affecting the supply infrastructure.

I recall that US energy consumption projections created for the US Dept. of Energy accounted for a dozen different consumption patterns leading up to 2050. Ordinary ICE cars were only expected to achieve 33 mpg, hybrid cars were only expected to achieve 50 mpg, and hydrogen fuel cells were only expected to achieve 80 mpg fuel economy in these projections. Amazingly, they never thought small single-seat biofuel ICE cars that get 100+ mpg were ever a possibility! Apparently the software used by LLNL can generate spaghetti diagrams with as few as ten mouse-clicks. Geen-ee-isses. They must be proud.

Projected scenarios:

Scenario 1: U.S. 2005 EIA Reference Case Projection (97 quads)
(20 mpg average light-duty fleet of 220 million autos)

Scenario 2: U.S. 2025 EIA Reference Case Projection (133 Quads)
(20 mpg average light-duty fleet of 266 million autos)

Scenario 3: U.S. 2050 Reference Case (181 quads)
(20 mpg average light-duty fleet of 318 million autos)

Scenario 4: U.S. 2050 Efficient Electricity Case (167 quads)
(50% efficient electricity generation)

Scenario 5: U.S. 2050 Automotive Efficiency Case (152 quads)
(33 mpg light-duty fleet fuel economy)

Scenario 6: U.S. 2050 Hybrid Vehicle Case (144 quads)
(50 mpg gasoline hybrid light duty fleet)

Scenario 7: U.S. 2050 blended H2 fuel cell light-duty fleet (146 quads)
(“80 mpg” compressed hydrogen light duty fleet)

Scenario 8: U.S. 2050 H2 light-duty fleet with wind electrolysis (143 quads)
(66% efficient wind electrolysis)

Scenario 9: U.S. 2050 H2 light-duty fleet with steam methane reforming (143 quads)
(75% efficient natural gas reforming)

Scenario 10: U.S. 2050 H2 light-duty fleet with biomass gasification (146 quads)
(65% efficient biomass gasification)

Scenario 11: U.S. 2050 H2 light-duty fleet with coal gasification (149 quads)
(50% efficient coal gasification with CO2 sequestration)

Scenario 12: U.S. 2050 H2 light-duty fleet with nuclear H2 production (153 quads)
(42% efficient thermochemical cycle)