In my opinion. Space is an expensive luxury, in the sense that space exploration isn't essential to life here on Earth. I know, I know, an asteroid could wipe us out, etc. Long shot in the nearer term.

I don't have any confidence that in 20 years there will be enough wealth to support much manned space exploration. If the cost of energy skyrockets, as it must without fusion, if clean, fresh water becomes too scarce necessitating expensive and energy consuming fixes, and if climate change displaces large numbers of people with the resultant political problems, space exploration could well go by the wayside.

The US deficits will be harder to maintain with more people, more expensive energy and a more global workforce. The Chinese people will be demanding a higher standard of living and it will take an enormouse civil infrastructure to deliver that. The Russians will remain out of the picture even though oil will keep their government afloat financially.

And the energy wealth of other countries will be siphoned off by their power structures for their personal benefit.

All of those problems seem to be both large-scale and probable.

I don't think that space exploration will disappear, but will be down-sized and most programs will necessarily be multi-national. Manned exploration will be very limited, and unmanned will be scaled down and back.

I really, really hope I'm wrong.

"Truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it." - Flannery O'Connor

Arf