Well, I don't understand the military focus on the Shia militias while at the same time ignoring the Sunnis who have done most of the instigation and inflamation in Baghdad- this does make a little more sense when looked at in the light of 'Blame Iran'.

Iran (and probably just as much Syria) have been actively engaged in this conflict from day one- its not been any secret to anyone who knows how to read between the lines, nor is it a surprise for anyone who knows regional politics and history. If the military planners who conceived this absurd war and pointless occupation really thought Syria and Iran would stay out of things, they were even more stupid than they now appear to be. Basically, if we wanted a war where syria and Iran would not interfere, we should have brought the extra troops to lock down the border, or we should have included them in the war palns (bombed the hell out of them, bomb anything moving with 5 miles of their borders with Iraq, whatever).

To suddenly wake up 4 years into the struggle and say: 'Gee- you guys should stay out of here!' Is ludicrous, and makes us look like frikin' idiots.

And to prosecute a war against the majority Shia in the absence of a serious simultaneous push against the radical Sunni elements, when the minority Sunni have been perhaps even more violoent and arguably the largest source of instigation strikes me as politically unwise. Yes- neither group are even remotely innocent or sane- but to even appear to be taking sides in this conflict is about as stupid as it gets.

No- this Surge and the political focus on the Shia militia and the Iranian connection, while ignoring the Sunnis and their broader regional connection (Saudi Arabia, anyone?) is a bad idea. If you all here recall, I did not initially oppose this surge as I basically feel that we must do something to avert the impending genocide and regional war. I oppose it now. Based on my understanding of the area- this is folly.

Here are some predictions:

The Surge will fail. Bush will keep us in Iraq just to not be the president who declares defeat (pin that on the next democrat to get elected, and the nascent democratic congress). There will be no further attempts at progress- just averting the worst of the sectarian violence while Bush plays out his endgame.

Meanwhile, during this time, the brewing genocidal civil war will simmer under the pressure of the american military. Once we're gone- Boom. Watch either for a quiet proxy war to play out in whats left of Iraq, with possible expansion into an overt shooting war. The players will be Syria, Saudi Arabia and Iran and possibly Israel, Turkey and the kurds.

Iran will see south Iraq as a protectorate state and an addition to its oil reserves- this is in line with the greater-persia+shia nationalism that (if you actually talk to an Iranian) is going through a major popular awakening there. Saudia Arabia will see a regional nuclear armed Shia Superpower with comprable oil wealth to its own as a severe threat, and will do whatever it can to enhance strife in southern Iraq- of all the conflicts that could spark a regional open shooting war- watch that one.

Furthermore, Syria- a historical ally of the Baathist Sunni state of Iraq has lost a major connection in the area- and given the Familial ties between many Syrian and Iraqi Sunnis- Will not stay out of the fray. They will see the rise of Iran as a Serious threat.

Worse- the Kurdish Issue. While the Sunnis are used as pawns by Syria and Saudi Arabia in a proxy war against Iran, the Kurdish North will continue to forge its autonomy. This will Destabalize Syria with its own oppressed sepratist Kurdish elements, as well as Turkey- whose kurd minority in the south remember what was done to them. Lok for open sepratist violence in the east/north east of syria and the South of turkey. Turkey may eventually 'invade' the northern part of whats left of Iran to keep the kurds down. Iran Won't like to see any Kurds anywhere have a state, but as long as they end up with central Iraq under their boot-heel, and Southern Iraq as a protectorate satellite state or region (no matter what 'borders' may be drawn)- I doubt they'll care too much.

Meanwhile, Israel isn't going to sit still. They have been quietly, but not exact secretly planning to 'deal' with the rising Iranian power. Expect some military strikes by israel against Iran. Expect Iran (and everyone else in the region) to ratchet up the funding and supplies for more palestinian violence.

God, its going to be a mess- and sadly it all revolves around how Iran plays its cards. Most of this can be averted by the iranian moderates asserting themselves again (as they have been trying to do for 15 years!). However- US saber rattling has only left the Iranian hardliners looking better. And only moves the population away from thinking of the US as a secret dream/ideal and towards the virulent corrupt notion that the Iranian harldiners have been pushing. Open military action by Isreal or US against Iran will seal the deal and result in a genocidal civil war in former Iraq actively funded and encourages by almost every regional player.

So, there is my set of predictions: It all hinges on the iranian moderates- who we are about to destroy politically by our aggression in the region and our actions towards Iran. Most of the major oil producers in the middle east are about to go to war with eachother either covertly or overtly, and the biggest oil-dependent nation on the planet has set the stage for this. What a screw-up.

Yeti