That Rove/Bush is prolonging the war purely for political reasons is beyond dispute, but I didn't speculate on their odds of success. I'm with you: Despite PT Barnum's low estimation of the intelligence of the American people, I think Lincoln was more correct when he observed that "you can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time." Diehard RightWingers will forever cling to the belief that the Iraq debacle is not Bush's fault and somehow the fault of Democrats, but the sane majority of Americans have awakened from their fearmongering-induced slumber and they understand where sole responsbility lies. (And is still lying to this day, if you'll forgive the double entendre.)