re: Purely hypothetical question.
The Chinese are using mostly other people's technology, largely Russian, and the Russians don't have any money either. Not sure why the Japanese would fund it. I could see the Chinese attempting a landing using what they already have and what they could develop. I wouldn't underwrite the life insurance on the astronauts, but it would be a gutsy thing to do.
Scene Three: The next person on the Moon may well be privately funded anyway. I would be willing to bet that the next person to fly around the Moon will be.