-- It starts more or less in about 1998 with the “Project for the New American Century”
--During first years of the new millennium, there is the Bush-Cheney administration plan to overthrow the governments of Iraq, Libya, Syria, Iran and several other states.
--Putin starts the BRICS trade bloc.
--CIA starts “arab spring”
--summer 2013, phony gas attack blamed on Assad
--Russia, China, Syria and Iran stage war games in the Mediterranean
--winter 2013, CIA stirs up Ukraine
--Crimean Russians declare their separation from Poroshenko; Putin takes Crimea
--summer 2014, “out of nowhere”, a new 'bogeyman' with a creative name is introduced to frighten the world. A militarized terror group known as 'ISIS'
My point so far is that the original US intent, to outmaneuver Russia/China, keeps getting skillfully defused. This is a smoldering WWIII that may never become a full conflagration, because, as you say, “we don’t know what we’re doing”, and our adversaries are very clever.
The latest incident in Paris seems to me to have elements of both Russian and US contributions; and Putin is scoring big.
I’m trying to picture what Putin’s next move will be (maybe to finish Saudi Arabia’s descent into bankruptcy). His timely (and planned) bombing of anti-Assad forces in Syria and cozying up to France (remember, Russia performs no service for free) may be a prelude to a scenario wherein EU drops NATO and bonds with neo-imperial Russia for protection services (wasn’t the “refugee” invasion a convenient event to endanger Merkel’s position?). US strategists originally hoped to use all these demographic and old grudge phenomena to their advantage, but our entire leadership has gotten pretty flaccid and dumbed down at both ends of the political spectrum. We, and Europe, are just bewitched and stupefied with language games, petulance and peevishness, and are gripped with a massive failure of nerve and judgment.
China and Iran will be coordinating with Russian military adroitness (by the way, Sergey Kuzhugetovich Shoygu is a very smart cookie, and will probably succeed Putin). After Merkel’s fall (Putin hates Merkel) and Saudi financial failure, Iran will be aided in its bid to control gulf. Meanwhile in South China Sea the USN might be in for some surprises.
The final best outcome is a finished “war” wherein the Eurasian axis is positioned to pressure the Anglosphere into surrendering various hegemonic positions around the planet without ever getting to the nuking cities-stage. The upcoming general election in the US might be the last one in which what’s left of the “thinking” of the electorate will apply memes extending from the post WWII era. The driver’s seat of Globalization will be firmly occupied by Russia/China and allies.