@ER’s I think you overestimate the ability of human personality and intellect to direct history
I have to differ. Maybe Toynbee was right about big shifts in civilizational tectonics being dependent on the willful response of key elites to specific challenges. I think that now is such a moment in history. Of course the drone of your turbulent and chaotic waterfall is always there, but sometimes it is not the key event.
RE jihadi behavior, some time ago Putin observed that outbreaks of fundamentalism are perfectly predictable when the necessary dictatorial govt establishment is dislodged (actually Assad and S Hussein were minority strongmen in their regions, which was the only possibility for stability there).