...are they directed by strong, charismatic personalities, Men That Make Things Happen, or are they somehow the cumulative result of billions of lives and intellects interacting together in space-time? Maybe it depends on the temporal resolution of your sample. At any rate, I doubt we'll decide that here.

But I am reminded of the old joke, three historian/philosophers, an Englishman, a German, and a Chinese, are discussing the question of whether Napoleon changed the course of history, or if the conditions were ready for change anyway. The Englishman said the world responded to new historical circumstances, if it hadn't been Napoleon, someone just like him would have emerged. The German felt he was the ubermensch, the man who changed the course of history by sheer power of Will. The Chinese scholar thought about it for a while and responded "Perhaps it's too early to tell yet."

I do agree with Putin on one thing. Once Saddam Hussein was removed from the equation, a set of dominoes began tumbling and drastic change was inevitable. What it was going to look like was impossible to determine. And the dominoes are still tumbling. Still, it is tempting to just blame it all on George W Bush. You could go back and say the overthrow of Mossadegh and the installation of the Shah is what changed history, or even the arbitrary partition of the Middle East by the Allied Imperial powers after WWI. Or even further back, during the expansion of the Ottoman Empire.

Perhaps, other than dates, places and names, there is absolutely nothing we can learn from history.