I thought over your premise, and it has something going for it. It would certainly explain the administration releasing this information, which on superficial examination, doesn't look that good.

It's a plausible way of saying, "no problem," and shoving the whole Iran issue into the "out" box. And, incidentally, into the "in" box of the next president.

Bush, among other leaders, has been declaring that Iran with nuclear weapons couldn't be tolerated. Iran has been ignoring this, the U.N., Europe, and everything else, and frankly, paranoid leftists aside, nobody really wants to attack Iran at this point. It was getting to the point where either some action had to be taken, or one side had to knuckle under. This more relaxed intelligence assessment allows the West to quietly back off without loss of face. Well, much loss of face.

It has the added advantage of putting Iran in a difficult spot. Like Saddam was doing, they have been inflating their own nuclear capabilities to enhance their position in the Middle East. Whether or not they are actually building bombs, they have been coyly acting like they might be, which allows them a good portion of the prestige of a nuclear nation, without the hard evidence that would make their violations obvious. Best of both worlds. North Korea stepped over that line, and didn't do so well.

Now, if the world believes this new assessment, which is pretty vague when it comes down to it, Iran has had its teeth pulled. They either have to sit down and shut up, or show in no uncertain terms that they still have a WMD potential. Neither is attractive.