Fact is that no one with the ability to do this has done it to another country. Not the US, not Russia, not China, not Britain, not France, not India - - -, well, most people would get the idea. Fearmongering is a traditional method for despots and American Conservatives to gain and hold power. It's classic. Surprising that Conservatives think it can work with a small country such as Iran. (And the US is the only country to have used a nuclear weapon on another country.)

HOWEVER, Bush once claimed that Iraq could launch crop-dusters from a merchant ship and wipe out whole populations of Americans, and America needed to preemptively invade Iraq and the public bought it. So there is the recent past history of that ploy being effective.

"Fact is that any launch system that can put a satellite into orbit can put an equivalent payload onto almost any spot on Earth. We're not talking about rockets that can only hit Israel any more. The only saving factor might be that the payload is so small that they couldn't loft anything other than the most sophisticated warheads (unlikely to be developed soon)."