"But looking at the pattern of primary victories, and the exit polls, I'm not seeing race as a major factor, even in southern states. "

And I'm sure you'll scream bloody murder at this- but the exit polls from registered Democrats... especially those 'hard core' enough to make it a point to attend primaries... don't count. Those are precisely the set of people who are quite willing to vote for a black man. Its the moderates and sometimes-republicans, of which very many will not vote for a Black man, especially in the south.

Racism is still very alive in our society (and here on the HabitableZone!). Capturing the votes of the mainstream active left (the ones who vote in primaries) is one thing- capturing a broader spectrum is another.

Obama has to pick up states in the south and mid-west in order to win. I just don;t know if thats going to be possible.

Yeti