Michigan and Florida must be counted - but there must also be some kind of punishment for breaking the rules. Otherwise the whole process risks descending into chaos the next time around. Most likely outcome is the one the Republicans chose, which is to count 1/2 the delegates (well, the GOP didn't quite screw up everything...they got one thing right...)

Obama is an extremely strong candidate and leads McCain in most national polls at present. He has a great chance of winning away from the Republicans the states of Virginia, Missouri, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, possibly North Carolina and Florida too. He currently maintains a slim lead in Pennsylvania and Ohio, obviously crucial states, and ones in which Hillary could really help.

Michigan will be solidly Democratic this fall - the state has suffered enormously with the decline of the auto industry and auto suppliers, has the highest unemployment rate in the country, and there's no love for Bush or the Republicans there. It's really doubtful that McCain has the appeal in the Wolverine state to pull it off in November. He lost the primary there, by the way.