First, you've been saying the same thing for over 5 years. Remember "MISSION ACCOMPLISHED"?

Second, the US does not control the level of violence. The various insurgent factions do. When they stand down, not go away, just stand down, the violence lessens and the neocons shout "Victory". Nothing could be further than the truth.

Third, the US won't negotiate with the insurgents. Matter of principle. However, the US under Bush will pass out large amounts of cash to them to buy time. The insurgents will stand down as long as Uncle Sugar is handing out unnegotiated amounts of money. In some circles that would be called "appeasement".

Fourth, there has been no political reconcilliation, no unification, the "sine qua non" for Iraq. Simply a stand-down, with the forces and weapons still in place. Some "victory".

Fifth, the level of violence is the same as in 2004. That was a year of full-scale war over there. Some benchmark for "victory".

And as an additional matter imagine a gang invaded your house, tortured your kid, beat up your wife and wounded you. Now they want to negotiate staying in your house for a while. May even pay rent. No court in the world would call that agreement valid, as long as it was "negotiated" while an armed gang was roaming through your house. Exact parallel to Iraq - no agreement regarding the long-term occupation could be considered valid as long as a foreign occupying military is roaming the streets immune to Iraqi laws.

Remember - "appeasement" is usually not considered to be "winning" or "victory", though the way neocons describe things I can believe they would try to do so.

Arf