Recent estimates are that new "in situ" extraction costs could go as low as $30 a barrel, but I'll believe it when I see it. I don't know about the exact energy balance, but the efficiency of more recent extraction concepts is higher than it used to be.

I'm cautious on this. I have noticed that current info on the research is not easy to come by. Shell's Mahogany project links have dried up on their website. I am also reminded of the Exxon/government shale oil boondoggle of the late 70s, which has echoes of the current ethanol fun and games.

A pretty good article here. Still over two years old, though. A more recent 2007 article I dug up talks about "ten years to commercialization."

This is one of a number of solutions, but it's not going to be a miracle. And yes, the environmentalists are trying to kill this, too.